Nepal's Economy:
What the Numbers Tell Us
in Five Months
A plain-language breakdown of Nepal Rastra Bank's official macroeconomic and financial report for the first five months of fiscal year 2025/26 (ending mid-December 2025). Written for everyday readers, students, and professionals who want to understand how Nepal's economy is doing right now.
Every few months, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central bank of Nepal, publishes a detailed report on how the country's economy is performing. The report released in January 2026, based on five months of data from the fiscal year 2025/26 (April to mid-December 2025), contains some very encouraging numbers. Inflation has fallen sharply. Remittances have surged. Exports are growing at a record pace. And Nepal's foreign currency reserves have reached a comfortable level. But not everything is rosy. Imports are also rising, the trade deficit is widening, and credit to the private sector is growing slowly. This blog unpacks every major finding from that report in simple, everyday language.
If terms like "current account surplus," "broad money," or "NEPSE index" sound complicated, do not worry. By the end of this article, you will understand what each of them means, why it matters to ordinary Nepali households and businesses, and what direction Nepal's economy is moving right now.
- 01 Inflation: Prices Are Rising More Slowly
- 02 Trade: Big Export Jump, Growing Deficit
- 03 Remittances: A Record-Breaking Year
- 04 Current Account and Balance of Payments
- 05 Foreign Exchange Reserves
- 06 Government Revenue and Spending
- 07 Money Supply, Deposits and Credit
- 08 Interest Rates and Banking
- 09 Capital Market: Stock Exchange
- 10 Questions and Answers
Inflation simply means how much more expensive things have become compared to the same time last year. If a bag of rice cost Rs. 100 last year and now costs Rs. 106, that is 6% inflation. When inflation is low, your money goes further, and daily life feels a little easier on the wallet.
Nepal's overall consumer price inflation stood at just 1.63 percent in mid-December 2025, measured year-on-year. That is a dramatic improvement compared to 6.05 percent at the same time last year. This means prices of everyday goods and services are rising at a much slower rate than before. For ordinary families, that is good news because their purchasing power is better protected.
The biggest reason for this slowdown is the fall in food and beverage prices. Food inflation actually turned negative at minus 2.05 percent, meaning food items are on average slightly cheaper than they were a year ago. Vegetables became 8.54 percent cheaper year-on-year, spices fell 8.43 percent, and pulses and legumes dropped 5.79 percent. For most Nepali households, which spend a large share of their income on food, this is directly beneficial.
However, not all categories fell. Non-food and service inflation still stood at 3.75 percent. Within this, miscellaneous goods and services rose 18.56 percent, education costs went up 7.56 percent, and clothing and footwear increased 5.29 percent. So while food became more affordable, services such as education continued to become costlier.
| Particulars | Weight (%) | Nov/Dec 2024/25 | Oct/Nov 2025/26 | Nov/Dec 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Inflation | 100.00 | 6.05 | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| Food and Beverages | 35.49 | 9.99 | -3.32 | -2.05 |
| Non-food and Service | 64.51 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 3.75 |
| Note: A negative value means prices fell compared to a year ago. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation, Five-Month Data 2025/26. | ||||
Table 1 directly from the NRB report. Weight refers to how much each category contributes to the overall inflation basket.
Inflation varied considerably across Nepal's provinces. Koshi Province saw the highest inflation at 2.54 percent, while Sudurpashchim Province had the lowest at just 0.40 percent. Urban areas experienced slightly higher inflation (1.83 percent) than rural areas (1.09 percent), which is a common pattern since cities tend to have higher service costs.
Low inflation is good for households and savings. When prices rise slowly, families can plan their budgets better. It also puts less pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates, which benefits people with loans. The average inflation of 1.55 percent over the five-month period is well below the government's typical target of around 6-7 percent, suggesting a period of comfortable price stability for Nepal.
Every country buys things from other countries (imports) and sells things to other countries (exports). When you buy more than you sell, the difference is called a trade deficit. Nepal imports much more than it exports, which is a long-standing challenge for the economy. Think of it like a family that earns less than it spends: manageable for a while, but worth watching closely.
Nepal's merchandise exports surged by an impressive 58.2 percent during the first five months of 2025/26, reaching Rs. 116.51 billion. This is a remarkable turnaround from the 16.5 percent growth recorded in the same period of the previous year. The biggest jump came from exports to India, which grew 82.7 percent. Soyabean oil, cardamom, palm oil, jute goods, and shoes and sandals all contributed to this growth.
Imports also rose, but at a much slower rate of 15.8 percent, reaching Rs. 766.19 billion. Imports came from all three major trading partners: India (up 5.7 percent), China (up 24.6 percent), and other countries (up 40.8 percent). Items that drove the import increase included crude soyabean oil, chemical fertilizer, gold, transport equipment, and silver.
Despite the strong export performance, Nepal's trade deficit still widened by 10.5 percent to Rs. 649.68 billion because the absolute gap between a small export base and a large import base remains wide. However, a key positive indicator is that the export-to-import ratio improved to 15.2 percent from 11.1 percent a year ago, meaning exports are now covering a larger share of import costs.
Source: NRB Current Macroeconomic Report, Five-Month Data 2025/26 (January 2026)
Looking at what Nepal actually exports, final consumption goods (like food products, clothing) made up 69.8 percent of exports, while intermediate goods (raw materials for factories) accounted for 29.6 percent. On the import side, intermediate goods dominated at 52.9 percent, followed by final consumption goods at 38.0 percent, and capital goods (machinery, equipment) at 9.1 percent. This structure tells us that Nepal still relies heavily on importing raw materials and finished goods, rather than producing them domestically. Building more local manufacturing capacity would be key to reducing the trade deficit over the long term.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which tracks the prices of goods at the bulk or wholesale level before they reach consumers, also showed a significant moderation. Wholesale price inflation stood at 2.78 percent in mid-December 2025, down sharply from 6.52 percent a year ago. Construction materials became 4.52 percent more expensive, which reflects ongoing infrastructure activity across the country.
When Nepali workers go abroad to work in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the UAE, or South Korea, they send money back home to their families. These money transfers are called remittances. They are the single largest source of foreign income for Nepal, and they play a crucial role in sustaining millions of households and supporting the overall economy.
Remittance inflows showed extraordinary growth during the five months of 2025/26, increasing by 35.6 percent in Nepali rupee terms to reach Rs. 870.31 billion. In US dollar terms, the growth was 29.0 percent, reaching USD 6.16 billion. This compares with a much more modest 4.7 percent growth in the same period of the previous year, indicating a very strong surge in earnings from Nepali workers abroad.
In just a single month, from mid-November to mid-December 2025 alone, remittance inflows stood at Rs. 183.18 billion, compared to Rs. 118.79 billion in the same month last year. That is a 54 percent jump in a single month, which shows how much faster money is coming into Nepal from overseas workers this year.
The total net secondary income, which includes remittances and other transfer payments, reached Rs. 954.78 billion in the review period, compared to Rs. 700.43 billion a year ago. This massive inflow is a key reason why Nepal's balance of payments is in such a strong position.
During the five-month period, the number of Nepali workers taking first-time approval for foreign employment was 175,591, slightly lower than the 190,384 in the same period last year. However, workers renewing their work permits for re-entry abroad increased to 163,924 from 135,425 a year ago. This suggests that while slightly fewer workers are going abroad for the first time, significantly more experienced workers are continuing their foreign employment, and they are likely earning higher wages, which explains the strong jump in remittance amounts.
| Particulars | 2024/25 (Rs. Billion) | 2025/26 (Rs. Billion) | Change 2024/25 (%) | Change 2025/26 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Income | 35.26 | 33.97 | +3.3 | -3.7 |
| Travel Payment | 84.50 | 88.97 | +11.6 | +5.3 |
| Remittance Inflows | 641.87 | 870.31 | +4.7 | +35.6 |
| Direct Investment Inflows (Equity) | 6.03 | 7.47 | +53.2 | +24.0 |
| R = Revised; P = Provisional. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Five-Month Data Report 2025/26. | ||||
Table 2 from NRB report. Education payments under travel payment rose to Rs. 56.52 billion from Rs. 47.45 billion, showing more Nepali students studying abroad.
The Balance of Payments (BOP) is like a comprehensive financial statement for the entire country. It records all the money flowing into Nepal (from exports, remittances, investments, tourism) and all the money flowing out (for imports, travel abroad, repaying loans). When more money comes in than goes out, Nepal is in a surplus, which is a healthy sign.
Nepal's current account showed a strong surplus of Rs. 358.83 billion in the five-month period, almost double the Rs. 158.45 billion surplus recorded in the same period of the previous year. In US dollar terms, this was a USD 2.54 billion surplus, up from USD 1.18 billion a year ago.
The overall Balance of Payments also remained firmly in surplus at Rs. 421.89 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 225.34 billion in the same period of last year. In US dollar terms, the BOP surplus was USD 2.98 billion, up from USD 1.68 billion. These large surpluses are driven primarily by the exceptional growth in remittance inflows, which more than compensated for the wider trade deficit.
Foreign direct investment (equity inflows only) also grew, reaching Rs. 7.47 billion compared to Rs. 6.03 billion in the same period last year, a 24 percent increase. While this remains a modest amount for the size of Nepal's economy, the upward trend is encouraging.
- •Current account surplus: Rs. 158.45 billion
- •BOP surplus: Rs. 225.34 billion
- •Current account (USD): +1.18 billion
- •BOP (USD): +1.68 billion
- •Net capital transfer: Rs. 3.50 billion
- ✓Current account surplus: Rs. 358.83 billion
- ✓BOP surplus: Rs. 421.89 billion
- ✓Current account (USD): +2.54 billion
- ✓BOP (USD): +2.98 billion
- ✓Net capital transfer: Rs. 7.06 billion
Foreign exchange reserves are the stocks of foreign currencies (like US dollars, Euros, Indian rupees) that the central bank holds. Think of it as the country's savings account in foreign money. These reserves are crucial because Nepal needs foreign currency to pay for imports. The more reserves a country holds, the more months of imports it can pay for without needing new foreign income.
Gross foreign exchange reserves increased by 19.6 percent to Rs. 3,201.47 billion in mid-December 2025, up from Rs. 2,677.68 billion in mid-July 2025. In US dollar terms, reserves grew 13.5 percent to USD 22.13 billion, from USD 19.50 billion at the start of the fiscal year.
Of the total reserves, Nepal Rastra Bank itself holds Rs. 2,866.47 billion (18.7 percent growth), while other banks and financial institutions hold Rs. 335 billion (27.4 percent growth). Indian currency makes up 22.2 percent of the total reserves, reflecting the strong trade and remittance ties with India.
The adequacy indicators are particularly reassuring. These reserves are sufficient to cover 21.7 months of merchandise imports alone, or 18.2 months of combined merchandise and services imports. International best practice suggests a minimum cover of three months; Nepal's cover at 18.2 months is extremely comfortable.
The Nepali currency weakened against the US dollar by 5.1 percent during this period. The buying rate stood at Rs. 144.37 per USD in mid-December 2025, compared to Rs. 137 in mid-July 2025. This depreciation makes imports more expensive in rupee terms and reduces the purchasing power of imported goods. Internationally, gold prices surged 62.3 percent to USD 4,315.85 per ounce, while crude oil prices fell 17.8 percent to USD 61.55 per barrel, benefiting Nepal as an oil importer.
The government's fiscal situation simply refers to how much the government earns (revenue) and how much it spends (expenditure). Like a household budget, if the government spends more than it earns, it runs a deficit and needs to borrow to cover the gap. Government spending on roads, schools, hospitals, and salaries is important for the economy, but it has to be managed carefully.
| Particulars | 2023/24 (Rs. Billion) | 2024/25 (Rs. Billion) | 2025/26 (Rs. Billion) | Change 2024/25 (%) | Change 2025/26 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Expenditure | 453.00 | 556.12 | 564.46 | +22.8 | +1.5 |
| Recurrent Expenditure | 360.00 | 363.55 | 398.05 | +1.0 | +9.5 |
| Capital Expenditure | 36.06 | 40.80 | 33.87 | +13.1 | -17.0 |
| Financial Management | 56.94 | 151.77 | 132.54 | +166.5 | -12.7 |
| Total Revenue | 363.43 | 399.60 | 406.30 | +10.0 | +1.7 |
| Tax Revenue | 337.19 | 362.58 | 382.23 | +7.5 | +5.4 |
| Non-Tax Revenue | 26.24 | 37.02 | 24.07 | +41.1 | -35.0 |
| Source: Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal. | |||||
Table 3 from NRB report. Capital expenditure declined 17%, which is a concern for infrastructure development. Tax revenue grew 5.4%, showing improved tax collection.
The Nepal Government spent Rs. 564.46 billion in the first five months, a modest 1.5 percent increase from the previous year. Of this, recurrent expenses (salaries, maintenance, administration) accounted for Rs. 398.05 billion, while capital expenditure (infrastructure projects, buildings) was only Rs. 33.87 billion. The 17 percent fall in capital expenditure is a concern because it suggests that the government is not investing enough in new roads, schools, and development projects during this period.
Revenue collection stood at Rs. 406.30 billion, slightly up by 1.7 percent. Tax revenue grew a healthy 5.4 percent to Rs. 382.23 billion, which reflects better tax administration. However, non-tax revenue fell sharply by 35 percent to Rs. 24.07 billion. The government's cash balance with NRB at the end of the period was Rs. 253.02 billion, up from Rs. 130.73 billion at the start of the year, indicating some fiscal cushion.
Capital expenditure of only Rs. 33.87 billion in five months, down 17 percent, is a recurring challenge for Nepal's government. Capital spending builds the physical infrastructure that supports long-term economic growth: roads, irrigation, hydropower, and public buildings. When capital spending falls, future economic capacity does not grow as fast as it should. Improving capital budget execution is one of the most persistent challenges in Nepal's public finance management.
Broad money, often called M2, refers to all the money circulating in an economy. It includes physical cash, money in bank savings and checking accounts, and short-term deposits. When M2 grows steadily, it means there is enough money in the system to support economic activity. Too much growth can cause inflation; too little can slow down the economy.
Broad money (M2) increased by 3.7 percent in the first five months of 2025/26. On a year-on-year basis, M2 expanded 12.9 percent in mid-December 2025. The growth was supported mainly by the significant increase in net foreign assets (driven by remittances and BOP surplus), which added Rs. 421.89 billion to the system.
Total deposits at Banks and Financial Institutions (BFIs) grew to Rs. 7,545.77 billion in the review period, a 3.9 percent increase. Year-on-year, deposits expanded 13.9 percent. This shows that people and businesses are saving more in the banking system, which is a healthy sign for financial deepening.
Private sector credit from BFIs grew more modestly, rising 1.9 percent to Rs. 5,599.95 billion. Year-on-year credit growth was 6.6 percent. The slower pace of credit growth suggests that businesses and individuals are either borrowing less or repaying existing loans, which may reflect cautious sentiment about taking on new debt in the current environment.
| Deposit Type | Mid-July 2024 (%) | Mid-July 2025 (%) | Mid-Dec 2024 (%) | Mid-Dec 2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Deposits | 5.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Saving Deposits | 30.3 | 36.8 | 33.6 | 39.9 |
| Fixed Deposits | 56.4 | 48.3 | 53.1 | 44.6 |
| Other Deposits | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 9.2 |
| Note: Saving deposits are growing as a share while fixed deposits are declining, suggesting depositors prefer more flexible access to their money. Source: NRB Report 2025/26. | ||||
Table 4 from NRB report. A key trend: saving deposits grew from 33.6% to 39.9% of total deposits, while fixed deposits declined from 53.1% to 44.6%.
Looking at where credit is going: the construction sector saw 5.2 percent growth in loans, the consumer sector grew 5.1 percent, and transportation and communication grew 3.5 percent. However, the agriculture sector saw credit decrease by 2.2 percent. In terms of loan types, hire purchase loans (for vehicles) grew the most at 6.1 percent, while margin loans grew 5.7 percent and real estate loans grew 3.7 percent. Notably, overdraft loans fell 5.4 percent, suggesting businesses are drawing less on credit lines, possibly due to sufficient liquidity from remittances.
Interest rates affect nearly everyone. If you borrow money to buy a house, a motorcycle, or expand your business, lower interest rates mean you pay less every month. For savers, lower rates mean your fixed deposit earns less. The central bank uses interest rate signals to control inflation and support economic activity. When rates fall, it generally becomes easier and cheaper to borrow and invest.
| Interest Rate Type | Mid-December 2024 (%) | Mid-December 2025 (%) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91-Day Treasury Bills Rate | 2.85 | 2.37 | ↓ Down |
| Inter-Bank Rate of BFIs | 3.00 | 2.74 | ↓ Down |
| Base Rate: Commercial Banks | 6.82 | 5.38 | ↓ Down |
| Base Rate: Development Banks | 8.65 | 7.60 | ↓ Down |
| Base Rate: Finance Companies | 9.77 | 8.19 | ↓ Down |
| Deposit Rate: Commercial Banks | 4.78 | 3.66 | ↓ Down |
| Deposit Rate: Development Banks | 5.75 | 4.21 | ↓ Down |
| Deposit Rate: Finance Companies | 6.70 | 5.31 | ↓ Down |
| Lending Rate: Commercial Banks | 8.90 | 7.26 | ↓ Down |
| Lending Rate: Development Banks | 10.26 | 8.49 | ↓ Down |
| Lending Rate: Finance Companies | 11.48 | 9.91 | ↓ Down |
| All interest rates fell significantly over the year. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic Report, January 2026. | |||
Table 5 from NRB report. Every single interest rate fell between December 2024 and December 2025. This is positive news for borrowers and businesses seeking credit.
| Type of Institution | Number (Jul 2024) | Number (Dec 2025) | Branches (Jul 2024) | Branches (Dec 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Banks | 20 | 20 | 5,056 | 5,105 |
| Development Banks | 17 | 17 | 1,135 | 1,131 |
| Finance Companies | 17 | 17 | 288 | 291 |
| Microfinance Institutions | 52 | 51 | 5,051 | 4,992 |
| Infrastructure Development Bank | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 107 | 106 | 11,530 | 11,519 |
| One microfinance institution reduced during the period. Total branches remain extensive at 11,519 nationwide. Source: NRB (updated at http://emap.nrb.org.np/) | ||||
| Institution | Deposit Accounts (Dec 2024) | Deposit Accounts (Dec 2025) | Loan Accounts (Dec 2024) | Loan Accounts (Dec 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Banks | 49,315,090 | 52,842,827 | 1,605,453 | 1,669,894 |
| Development Banks | 7,323,775 | 7,652,061 | 278,782 | 265,815 |
| Finance Companies | 927,905 | 1,057,099 | 43,875 | 77,285 |
| Total | 57,566,770 | 61,551,987 | 1,928,110 | 2,012,994 |
| Nepal now has over 61.5 million deposit accounts, a significant increase reflecting growing financial inclusion. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, January 2026. | ||||
Table 7 from NRB report. The growth from 57.5 million to 61.5 million deposit accounts in just one year shows rapid financial inclusion progress in Nepal.
During mid-November to mid-December 2025 alone: debit card users conducted 10 million transactions worth Rs. 77.22 billion. Mobile banking processed 63.12 million transactions worth Rs. 516.49 billion. QR code payments reached 42.16 million transactions worth Rs. 117.79 billion. The dominance of mobile banking, with over 63 million transactions in a single month, shows how rapidly Nepal's payment system has digitized. This has expanded financial access even in remote areas where physical bank branches are limited.
NEPSE stands for the Nepal Stock Exchange. It is the main marketplace where people buy and sell shares of companies. The NEPSE index shows the overall health of the stock market: when it rises, it means share prices generally went up, and when it falls, prices generally went down. The index is closely watched by investors, banks, and the general public as a barometer of economic confidence.
The NEPSE index stood at 2,601.62 points in mid-December 2025, slightly lower than the 2,682.29 recorded in mid-December 2024. Stock market capitalization was Rs. 4,368.17 billion, compared to Rs. 4,449.11 billion a year ago. The market capitalization-to-GDP ratio stood at 71.52 percent, down slightly from 77.93 percent the previous year.
The number of companies listed on NEPSE grew to 285 in mid-December 2025, up from 267 a year ago. Of these, 133 are banks and financial institutions, 97 are hydropower companies, 26 are manufacturing and processing industries, 8 are hotels, and the rest are from investment, trading, and other sectors.
Banks and financial institutions dominate the market at 52.5 percent of total market capitalization, followed by hydropower companies at 15.2 percent, investment companies at 7.4 percent, and manufacturing and processing industries at 6.5 percent.
Source: NRB Macroeconomic Report, January 2026. Total market capitalization: Rs. 4,368.17 billion.
New securities worth Rs. 43.24 billion were listed on NEPSE during the five-month period, including ordinary shares (Rs. 21.96 billion), right shares (Rs. 7.46 billion), mutual funds (Rs. 6.25 billion), debentures (Rs. 3.40 billion), bonus shares (Rs. 3.24 billion), and further public offerings (Rs. 925 million). The Securities Board of Nepal also approved public issuances totaling Rs. 20.75 billion in the period.
Nepal's macroeconomic position in the first five months of 2025/26 is among the strongest it has been in several years. The combination of low inflation, record remittances, a large BOP surplus, and comfortable foreign exchange reserves creates a solid foundation. The main areas to watch remain capital expenditure execution, private sector credit growth, and the widening trade deficit.
Analysis based on NRB Current Macroeconomic Report, January 2026- 1Inflation is at a five-year low at 1.63 percent, with food prices actually falling. This is directly beneficial to ordinary households and their monthly budgets across Nepal.
- 2Remittances are the economy's biggest strength right now: Rs. 870.31 billion in just five months, up 35.6 percent. This is what is keeping Nepal's BOP and foreign reserves strong.
- 3Exports surged 58.2 percent, led by agricultural products like soyabean oil and cardamom going to India. This is positive diversification for Nepal's income sources.
- 4Foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable Rs. 3,201 billion covering 18.2 months of imports, well above the internationally recommended three-month minimum.
- 5All interest rates fell significantly: commercial bank lending rate dropped from 8.90% to 7.26%, making loans cheaper for businesses and households.
- 6Capital expenditure fell 17 percent, which is a persistent concern for infrastructure development and long-term economic capacity building in Nepal.
- 7Financial inclusion is expanding rapidly: deposit accounts grew from 57.5 million to 61.5 million, and mobile banking processed over 63 million transactions in a single month.
References and Data Sources
- Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). (January 2026). Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal Based on Five Months Data (Ending Mid-December) of 2025/26. Economic Research Department, Baluwatar, Kathmandu. Primary source for all data in this blog. www.nrb.org.np
- Ministry of Finance, Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), Government of Nepal. (2025/26). Government expenditure and revenue data cited in NRB report Table 3. Source of fiscal data in Section 6.
- Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON). (2025/26). Public issuance approval data for the NEPSE capital market section. Cited via NRB report paragraphs 62-68.
- Nepal Rastra Bank. (2025). BFI Branch and Account Data. Electronic Map of Banking Infrastructure (emap.nrb.org.np). Source for Table 6 and Table 7 branch and deposit account statistics.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). IMF External Sector Assessment Methodology and Reserve Adequacy Guidelines. Used for contextual comparison of Nepal's foreign exchange reserve adequacy ratios. www.imf.org
- World Bank. (2024). Nepal Development Update: Unlocking Nepal's Private Sector Potential. Used for background context on Nepal's structural trade and remittance patterns. www.worldbank.org
- Nepal Rastra Bank. (2025). NRB Monetary Policy 2025/26. Background policy framework for interest rate and liquidity management analysis in Section 8. www.nrb.org.np
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