Nepalese Economy: What Tells NRB Data

Nepal Economy at a Glance: Key Highlights from NRB's Five-Month Report 2025/26 | Nilambar Khanal
Aerial view of Kathmandu city representing Nepal economy overview 2025 2026
🌏 NRB Economic Report 2025/26

Nepal's Economy:
What the Numbers Tell Us
in Five Months

A plain-language breakdown of Nepal Rastra Bank's official macroeconomic and financial report for the first five months of fiscal year 2025/26 (ending mid-December 2025). Written for everyday readers, students, and professionals who want to understand how Nepal's economy is doing right now.

✦ Official NRB Data ✦ Beginner Friendly ✦ Five-Month Report ✦ Nepal Economy
Photo: Unsplash
1.63%Inflation (down from 6.05% last year)
35.6%Remittance growth in NPR terms
58.2%Export growth in five months
18.2 moImport cover from foreign reserves
Advertisement  

Every few months, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central bank of Nepal, publishes a detailed report on how the country's economy is performing. The report released in January 2026, based on five months of data from the fiscal year 2025/26 (April to mid-December 2025), contains some very encouraging numbers. Inflation has fallen sharply. Remittances have surged. Exports are growing at a record pace. And Nepal's foreign currency reserves have reached a comfortable level. But not everything is rosy. Imports are also rising, the trade deficit is widening, and credit to the private sector is growing slowly. This blog unpacks every major finding from that report in simple, everyday language.

If terms like "current account surplus," "broad money," or "NEPSE index" sound complicated, do not worry. By the end of this article, you will understand what each of them means, why it matters to ordinary Nepali households and businesses, and what direction Nepal's economy is moving right now.

Section One
01
Inflation: Prices Are Rising Much More Slowly
CPI dropped from 6.05% to just 1.63% year-on-year
🌟 What Is Inflation?

Inflation simply means how much more expensive things have become compared to the same time last year. If a bag of rice cost Rs. 100 last year and now costs Rs. 106, that is 6% inflation. When inflation is low, your money goes further, and daily life feels a little easier on the wallet.

Market stalls in Nepal with vegetables and goods representing consumer price inflation impact on daily spending
📷 Photo by Unsplash / Tom Fisk  ·  Unsplash License

Nepal's overall consumer price inflation stood at just 1.63 percent in mid-December 2025, measured year-on-year. That is a dramatic improvement compared to 6.05 percent at the same time last year. This means prices of everyday goods and services are rising at a much slower rate than before. For ordinary families, that is good news because their purchasing power is better protected.

The biggest reason for this slowdown is the fall in food and beverage prices. Food inflation actually turned negative at minus 2.05 percent, meaning food items are on average slightly cheaper than they were a year ago. Vegetables became 8.54 percent cheaper year-on-year, spices fell 8.43 percent, and pulses and legumes dropped 5.79 percent. For most Nepali households, which spend a large share of their income on food, this is directly beneficial.

However, not all categories fell. Non-food and service inflation still stood at 3.75 percent. Within this, miscellaneous goods and services rose 18.56 percent, education costs went up 7.56 percent, and clothing and footwear increased 5.29 percent. So while food became more affordable, services such as education continued to become costlier.

Table 1: Year-on-Year Consumer Price Inflation (Percent) | Source: NRB
Particulars Weight (%) Nov/Dec 2024/25 Oct/Nov 2025/26 Nov/Dec 2025/26
Overall Inflation 100.00 6.05 1.11 1.63
Food and Beverages 35.49 9.99 -3.32 -2.05
Non-food and Service 64.51 3.92 3.69 3.75
Note: A negative value means prices fell compared to a year ago. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation, Five-Month Data 2025/26.

Table 1 directly from the NRB report. Weight refers to how much each category contributes to the overall inflation basket.

Inflation Across Provinces and Regions

Inflation varied considerably across Nepal's provinces. Koshi Province saw the highest inflation at 2.54 percent, while Sudurpashchim Province had the lowest at just 0.40 percent. Urban areas experienced slightly higher inflation (1.83 percent) than rural areas (1.09 percent), which is a common pattern since cities tend to have higher service costs.

2.54%Koshi Province
2.01%Madhesh Province
1.67%Lumbini Province
1.48%Bagmati Province
1.09%Karnali Province
1.08%Gandaki Province
0.40%Sudurpashchim
1.55%National Average (5 months)
What This Means for You

Low inflation is good for households and savings. When prices rise slowly, families can plan their budgets better. It also puts less pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates, which benefits people with loans. The average inflation of 1.55 percent over the five-month period is well below the government's typical target of around 6-7 percent, suggesting a period of comfortable price stability for Nepal.

Advertisement  
Section Two
02
Trade: Exports Surge but the Deficit Keeps Growing
Exports up 58.2% while imports rose 15.8%, widening the trade gap
🌟 What Is the Trade Deficit?

Every country buys things from other countries (imports) and sells things to other countries (exports). When you buy more than you sell, the difference is called a trade deficit. Nepal imports much more than it exports, which is a long-standing challenge for the economy. Think of it like a family that earns less than it spends: manageable for a while, but worth watching closely.

Container port with shipping goods representing Nepal trade imports and exports

Nepal's merchandise exports surged by an impressive 58.2 percent during the first five months of 2025/26, reaching Rs. 116.51 billion. This is a remarkable turnaround from the 16.5 percent growth recorded in the same period of the previous year. The biggest jump came from exports to India, which grew 82.7 percent. Soyabean oil, cardamom, palm oil, jute goods, and shoes and sandals all contributed to this growth.

Imports also rose, but at a much slower rate of 15.8 percent, reaching Rs. 766.19 billion. Imports came from all three major trading partners: India (up 5.7 percent), China (up 24.6 percent), and other countries (up 40.8 percent). Items that drove the import increase included crude soyabean oil, chemical fertilizer, gold, transport equipment, and silver.

Despite the strong export performance, Nepal's trade deficit still widened by 10.5 percent to Rs. 649.68 billion because the absolute gap between a small export base and a large import base remains wide. However, a key positive indicator is that the export-to-import ratio improved to 15.2 percent from 11.1 percent a year ago, meaning exports are now covering a larger share of import costs.

Chart 2: Foreign Trade Growth Rate Comparison (Five Months)
Year-over-year percentage change in exports, imports, and trade deficit. Based on NRB Chart 2 data.
Exports Growth 2025/26 Rs. 116.51 billion
Exports Growth 2024/25 Rs. 73.65 billion (comparison base)
Imports Growth 2025/26 Rs. 766.19 billion
Trade Deficit Growth 2025/26 Rs. 649.68 billion
Exports (strong growth)
Imports (moderate growth)
Trade Deficit (widening)

Source: NRB Current Macroeconomic Report, Five-Month Data 2025/26 (January 2026)

📊
Composition of What Nepal Exports and Imports

Looking at what Nepal actually exports, final consumption goods (like food products, clothing) made up 69.8 percent of exports, while intermediate goods (raw materials for factories) accounted for 29.6 percent. On the import side, intermediate goods dominated at 52.9 percent, followed by final consumption goods at 38.0 percent, and capital goods (machinery, equipment) at 9.1 percent. This structure tells us that Nepal still relies heavily on importing raw materials and finished goods, rather than producing them domestically. Building more local manufacturing capacity would be key to reducing the trade deficit over the long term.

Wholesale Price Inflation

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which tracks the prices of goods at the bulk or wholesale level before they reach consumers, also showed a significant moderation. Wholesale price inflation stood at 2.78 percent in mid-December 2025, down sharply from 6.52 percent a year ago. Construction materials became 4.52 percent more expensive, which reflects ongoing infrastructure activity across the country.

Section Three
03
Remittances: Nepal's Biggest Income Source Keeps Growing
Rs. 870.31 billion received in just five months, up 35.6% year-on-year
Money transfer concept representing Nepal remittance inflows from Nepali workers abroad
📷 Photo by Unsplash / Emil Kalibradov  ·  Unsplash License
🌟 What Are Remittances?

When Nepali workers go abroad to work in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the UAE, or South Korea, they send money back home to their families. These money transfers are called remittances. They are the single largest source of foreign income for Nepal, and they play a crucial role in sustaining millions of households and supporting the overall economy.

Remittance inflows showed extraordinary growth during the five months of 2025/26, increasing by 35.6 percent in Nepali rupee terms to reach Rs. 870.31 billion. In US dollar terms, the growth was 29.0 percent, reaching USD 6.16 billion. This compares with a much more modest 4.7 percent growth in the same period of the previous year, indicating a very strong surge in earnings from Nepali workers abroad.

In just a single month, from mid-November to mid-December 2025 alone, remittance inflows stood at Rs. 183.18 billion, compared to Rs. 118.79 billion in the same month last year. That is a 54 percent jump in a single month, which shows how much faster money is coming into Nepal from overseas workers this year.

The total net secondary income, which includes remittances and other transfer payments, reached Rs. 954.78 billion in the review period, compared to Rs. 700.43 billion a year ago. This massive inflow is a key reason why Nepal's balance of payments is in such a strong position.

35.6%Growth in remittances (NPR terms)
29.0%Growth in remittances (USD terms)
Rs. 870BTotal remittance inflow (5 months)
175,591First-time workers approved for foreign employment
👥
Who Is Going Abroad for Work?

During the five-month period, the number of Nepali workers taking first-time approval for foreign employment was 175,591, slightly lower than the 190,384 in the same period last year. However, workers renewing their work permits for re-entry abroad increased to 163,924 from 135,425 a year ago. This suggests that while slightly fewer workers are going abroad for the first time, significantly more experienced workers are continuing their foreign employment, and they are likely earning higher wages, which explains the strong jump in remittance amounts.

Table 2: Selected Balance of Payments Indicators (Five Months) | Source: NRB
Particulars 2024/25 (Rs. Billion) 2025/26 (Rs. Billion) Change 2024/25 (%) Change 2025/26 (%)
Travel Income 35.26 33.97 +3.3 -3.7
Travel Payment 84.50 88.97 +11.6 +5.3
Remittance Inflows 641.87 870.31 +4.7 +35.6
Direct Investment Inflows (Equity) 6.03 7.47 +53.2 +24.0
R = Revised; P = Provisional. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Five-Month Data Report 2025/26.

Table 2 from NRB report. Education payments under travel payment rose to Rs. 56.52 billion from Rs. 47.45 billion, showing more Nepali students studying abroad.

Section Four
04
Current Account and Balance of Payments: Nepal Is in Surplus
BOP surplus of Rs. 421.89 billion, more than double the previous year
🌟 What Is the Balance of Payments?

The Balance of Payments (BOP) is like a comprehensive financial statement for the entire country. It records all the money flowing into Nepal (from exports, remittances, investments, tourism) and all the money flowing out (for imports, travel abroad, repaying loans). When more money comes in than goes out, Nepal is in a surplus, which is a healthy sign.

Nepal's current account showed a strong surplus of Rs. 358.83 billion in the five-month period, almost double the Rs. 158.45 billion surplus recorded in the same period of the previous year. In US dollar terms, this was a USD 2.54 billion surplus, up from USD 1.18 billion a year ago.

The overall Balance of Payments also remained firmly in surplus at Rs. 421.89 billion, compared to a surplus of Rs. 225.34 billion in the same period of last year. In US dollar terms, the BOP surplus was USD 2.98 billion, up from USD 1.68 billion. These large surpluses are driven primarily by the exceptional growth in remittance inflows, which more than compensated for the wider trade deficit.

Foreign direct investment (equity inflows only) also grew, reaching Rs. 7.47 billion compared to Rs. 6.03 billion in the same period last year, a 24 percent increase. While this remains a modest amount for the size of Nepal's economy, the upward trend is encouraging.

📈 Five Months 2024/25
  • Current account surplus: Rs. 158.45 billion
  • BOP surplus: Rs. 225.34 billion
  • Current account (USD): +1.18 billion
  • BOP (USD): +1.68 billion
  • Net capital transfer: Rs. 3.50 billion
📈 Five Months 2025/26 (Improvement)
  • Current account surplus: Rs. 358.83 billion
  • BOP surplus: Rs. 421.89 billion
  • Current account (USD): +2.54 billion
  • BOP (USD): +2.98 billion
  • Net capital transfer: Rs. 7.06 billion
Advertisement  
Section Five
05
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Nepal Has Strong Import Cover
Reserves reached Rs. 3,201.47 billion, enough to cover 18.2 months of imports
🌟 What Are Foreign Exchange Reserves?

Foreign exchange reserves are the stocks of foreign currencies (like US dollars, Euros, Indian rupees) that the central bank holds. Think of it as the country's savings account in foreign money. These reserves are crucial because Nepal needs foreign currency to pay for imports. The more reserves a country holds, the more months of imports it can pay for without needing new foreign income.

Financial data charts representing Nepal foreign exchange reserves growth

Gross foreign exchange reserves increased by 19.6 percent to Rs. 3,201.47 billion in mid-December 2025, up from Rs. 2,677.68 billion in mid-July 2025. In US dollar terms, reserves grew 13.5 percent to USD 22.13 billion, from USD 19.50 billion at the start of the fiscal year.

Of the total reserves, Nepal Rastra Bank itself holds Rs. 2,866.47 billion (18.7 percent growth), while other banks and financial institutions hold Rs. 335 billion (27.4 percent growth). Indian currency makes up 22.2 percent of the total reserves, reflecting the strong trade and remittance ties with India.

The adequacy indicators are particularly reassuring. These reserves are sufficient to cover 21.7 months of merchandise imports alone, or 18.2 months of combined merchandise and services imports. International best practice suggests a minimum cover of three months; Nepal's cover at 18.2 months is extremely comfortable.

Rs. 3,201BGross foreign exchange reserves (mid-Dec 2025)
USD 22.13BIn US dollar terms (up 13.5%)
18.2 moImport cover (merchandise + services)
52.4%Reserves-to-GDP ratio (vs 43.8% in July)
151.9%Reserves-to-imports ratio
39.4%Reserves-to-M2 ratio (money supply)
💰
Exchange Rate and Gold Price Update

The Nepali currency weakened against the US dollar by 5.1 percent during this period. The buying rate stood at Rs. 144.37 per USD in mid-December 2025, compared to Rs. 137 in mid-July 2025. This depreciation makes imports more expensive in rupee terms and reduces the purchasing power of imported goods. Internationally, gold prices surged 62.3 percent to USD 4,315.85 per ounce, while crude oil prices fell 17.8 percent to USD 61.55 per barrel, benefiting Nepal as an oil importer.

Section Six
06
Government Revenue and Spending: Spending Slightly Exceeds Income
Expenditure Rs. 564.46B vs Revenue Rs. 406.30B in five months
🌟 What Is Fiscal Policy?

The government's fiscal situation simply refers to how much the government earns (revenue) and how much it spends (expenditure). Like a household budget, if the government spends more than it earns, it runs a deficit and needs to borrow to cover the gap. Government spending on roads, schools, hospitals, and salaries is important for the economy, but it has to be managed carefully.

Table 3: Government Expenditure and Revenue up to Five Months | Source: Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO)
Particulars 2023/24 (Rs. Billion) 2024/25 (Rs. Billion) 2025/26 (Rs. Billion) Change 2024/25 (%) Change 2025/26 (%)
Total Expenditure 453.00 556.12 564.46 +22.8 +1.5
Recurrent Expenditure 360.00 363.55 398.05 +1.0 +9.5
Capital Expenditure 36.06 40.80 33.87 +13.1 -17.0
Financial Management 56.94 151.77 132.54 +166.5 -12.7
Total Revenue 363.43 399.60 406.30 +10.0 +1.7
Tax Revenue 337.19 362.58 382.23 +7.5 +5.4
Non-Tax Revenue 26.24 37.02 24.07 +41.1 -35.0
Source: Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal.

Table 3 from NRB report. Capital expenditure declined 17%, which is a concern for infrastructure development. Tax revenue grew 5.4%, showing improved tax collection.

The Nepal Government spent Rs. 564.46 billion in the first five months, a modest 1.5 percent increase from the previous year. Of this, recurrent expenses (salaries, maintenance, administration) accounted for Rs. 398.05 billion, while capital expenditure (infrastructure projects, buildings) was only Rs. 33.87 billion. The 17 percent fall in capital expenditure is a concern because it suggests that the government is not investing enough in new roads, schools, and development projects during this period.

Revenue collection stood at Rs. 406.30 billion, slightly up by 1.7 percent. Tax revenue grew a healthy 5.4 percent to Rs. 382.23 billion, which reflects better tax administration. However, non-tax revenue fell sharply by 35 percent to Rs. 24.07 billion. The government's cash balance with NRB at the end of the period was Rs. 253.02 billion, up from Rs. 130.73 billion at the start of the year, indicating some fiscal cushion.

⚠️
The Low Capital Spending Concern

Capital expenditure of only Rs. 33.87 billion in five months, down 17 percent, is a recurring challenge for Nepal's government. Capital spending builds the physical infrastructure that supports long-term economic growth: roads, irrigation, hydropower, and public buildings. When capital spending falls, future economic capacity does not grow as fast as it should. Improving capital budget execution is one of the most persistent challenges in Nepal's public finance management.

Section Seven
07
Money Supply, Deposits, and Credit: Steady but Cautious Growth
Bank deposits up 3.9%, private credit up 1.9%, broad money up 3.7%
🌟 What Is Broad Money (M2)?

Broad money, often called M2, refers to all the money circulating in an economy. It includes physical cash, money in bank savings and checking accounts, and short-term deposits. When M2 grows steadily, it means there is enough money in the system to support economic activity. Too much growth can cause inflation; too little can slow down the economy.

Broad money (M2) increased by 3.7 percent in the first five months of 2025/26. On a year-on-year basis, M2 expanded 12.9 percent in mid-December 2025. The growth was supported mainly by the significant increase in net foreign assets (driven by remittances and BOP surplus), which added Rs. 421.89 billion to the system.

Total deposits at Banks and Financial Institutions (BFIs) grew to Rs. 7,545.77 billion in the review period, a 3.9 percent increase. Year-on-year, deposits expanded 13.9 percent. This shows that people and businesses are saving more in the banking system, which is a healthy sign for financial deepening.

Private sector credit from BFIs grew more modestly, rising 1.9 percent to Rs. 5,599.95 billion. Year-on-year credit growth was 6.6 percent. The slower pace of credit growth suggests that businesses and individuals are either borrowing less or repaying existing loans, which may reflect cautious sentiment about taking on new debt in the current environment.

Table 4: Deposits at Banks and Financial Institutions (Percentage Share) | Source: NRB
Deposit Type Mid-July 2024 (%) Mid-July 2025 (%) Mid-Dec 2024 (%) Mid-Dec 2025 (%)
Demand Deposits 5.8 7.1 5.3 6.4
Saving Deposits 30.3 36.8 33.6 39.9
Fixed Deposits 56.4 48.3 53.1 44.6
Other Deposits 7.5 7.8 8.1 9.2
Note: Saving deposits are growing as a share while fixed deposits are declining, suggesting depositors prefer more flexible access to their money. Source: NRB Report 2025/26.

Table 4 from NRB report. A key trend: saving deposits grew from 33.6% to 39.9% of total deposits, while fixed deposits declined from 53.1% to 44.6%.

📊
How Banks Are Lending: Sector Breakdown

Looking at where credit is going: the construction sector saw 5.2 percent growth in loans, the consumer sector grew 5.1 percent, and transportation and communication grew 3.5 percent. However, the agriculture sector saw credit decrease by 2.2 percent. In terms of loan types, hire purchase loans (for vehicles) grew the most at 6.1 percent, while margin loans grew 5.7 percent and real estate loans grew 3.7 percent. Notably, overdraft loans fell 5.4 percent, suggesting businesses are drawing less on credit lines, possibly due to sufficient liquidity from remittances.

Section Eight
08
Interest Rates and Banking Sector: Rates Are Coming Down
Commercial bank lending rate fell from 8.90% to 7.26% year-on-year
🌟 Why Do Interest Rates Matter?

Interest rates affect nearly everyone. If you borrow money to buy a house, a motorcycle, or expand your business, lower interest rates mean you pay less every month. For savers, lower rates mean your fixed deposit earns less. The central bank uses interest rate signals to control inflation and support economic activity. When rates fall, it generally becomes easier and cheaper to borrow and invest.

Table 5: Weighted Average Interest Rates (Percent) | Source: NRB
Interest Rate Type Mid-December 2024 (%) Mid-December 2025 (%) Direction
91-Day Treasury Bills Rate 2.85 2.37 ↓ Down
Inter-Bank Rate of BFIs 3.00 2.74 ↓ Down
Base Rate: Commercial Banks 6.82 5.38 ↓ Down
Base Rate: Development Banks 8.65 7.60 ↓ Down
Base Rate: Finance Companies 9.77 8.19 ↓ Down
Deposit Rate: Commercial Banks 4.78 3.66 ↓ Down
Deposit Rate: Development Banks 5.75 4.21 ↓ Down
Deposit Rate: Finance Companies 6.70 5.31 ↓ Down
Lending Rate: Commercial Banks 8.90 7.26 ↓ Down
Lending Rate: Development Banks 10.26 8.49 ↓ Down
Lending Rate: Finance Companies 11.48 9.91 ↓ Down
All interest rates fell significantly over the year. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic Report, January 2026.

Table 5 from NRB report. Every single interest rate fell between December 2024 and December 2025. This is positive news for borrowers and businesses seeking credit.

Banking Network: Reach Across the Country
Table 6: Number of BFIs and Their Branches | Source: NRB
Type of Institution Number (Jul 2024) Number (Dec 2025) Branches (Jul 2024) Branches (Dec 2025)
Commercial Banks 20 20 5,056 5,105
Development Banks 17 17 1,135 1,131
Finance Companies 17 17 288 291
Microfinance Institutions 52 51 5,051 4,992
Infrastructure Development Bank 1 1 0 0
Total 107 106 11,530 11,519
One microfinance institution reduced during the period. Total branches remain extensive at 11,519 nationwide. Source: NRB (updated at http://emap.nrb.org.np/)
Table 7: Number of Deposit and Loan Accounts of BFIs | Source: NRB
Institution Deposit Accounts (Dec 2024) Deposit Accounts (Dec 2025) Loan Accounts (Dec 2024) Loan Accounts (Dec 2025)
Commercial Banks 49,315,090 52,842,827 1,605,453 1,669,894
Development Banks 7,323,775 7,652,061 278,782 265,815
Finance Companies 927,905 1,057,099 43,875 77,285
Total 57,566,770 61,551,987 1,928,110 2,012,994
Nepal now has over 61.5 million deposit accounts, a significant increase reflecting growing financial inclusion. Source: Nepal Rastra Bank, January 2026.

Table 7 from NRB report. The growth from 57.5 million to 61.5 million deposit accounts in just one year shows rapid financial inclusion progress in Nepal.

🔐
Digital Banking Is Booming

During mid-November to mid-December 2025 alone: debit card users conducted 10 million transactions worth Rs. 77.22 billion. Mobile banking processed 63.12 million transactions worth Rs. 516.49 billion. QR code payments reached 42.16 million transactions worth Rs. 117.79 billion. The dominance of mobile banking, with over 63 million transactions in a single month, shows how rapidly Nepal's payment system has digitized. This has expanded financial access even in remote areas where physical bank branches are limited.

Advertisement  
Section Nine
09
Capital Market: Stock Market Edged Lower
NEPSE index at 2,601.62, slightly below 2,682.29 from a year ago
🌟 What Is NEPSE?

NEPSE stands for the Nepal Stock Exchange. It is the main marketplace where people buy and sell shares of companies. The NEPSE index shows the overall health of the stock market: when it rises, it means share prices generally went up, and when it falls, prices generally went down. The index is closely watched by investors, banks, and the general public as a barometer of economic confidence.

Stock market charts and trading data representing NEPSE Nepal stock exchange performance

The NEPSE index stood at 2,601.62 points in mid-December 2025, slightly lower than the 2,682.29 recorded in mid-December 2024. Stock market capitalization was Rs. 4,368.17 billion, compared to Rs. 4,449.11 billion a year ago. The market capitalization-to-GDP ratio stood at 71.52 percent, down slightly from 77.93 percent the previous year.

The number of companies listed on NEPSE grew to 285 in mid-December 2025, up from 267 a year ago. Of these, 133 are banks and financial institutions, 97 are hydropower companies, 26 are manufacturing and processing industries, 8 are hotels, and the rest are from investment, trading, and other sectors.

Banks and financial institutions dominate the market at 52.5 percent of total market capitalization, followed by hydropower companies at 15.2 percent, investment companies at 7.4 percent, and manufacturing and processing industries at 6.5 percent.

Chart 7 Reference: NEPSE Index Composition by Sector (Mid-December 2025)
Based on NRB data. Shows each sector's share of total stock market capitalization at Nepal Stock Exchange.
Banks and Financial Institutions (133 companies) 52.5% of market cap
Hydropower Companies (97 companies) 15.2% of market cap
Other Companies (10) 10.4% of market cap
Investment Companies (7) 7.4% of market cap
Manufacturing and Processing (26) 6.5% of market cap
Trading Companies (4) + Hotels (8) 4.9% + 3.1% of market cap

Source: NRB Macroeconomic Report, January 2026. Total market capitalization: Rs. 4,368.17 billion.

New securities worth Rs. 43.24 billion were listed on NEPSE during the five-month period, including ordinary shares (Rs. 21.96 billion), right shares (Rs. 7.46 billion), mutual funds (Rs. 6.25 billion), debentures (Rs. 3.40 billion), bonus shares (Rs. 3.24 billion), and further public offerings (Rs. 925 million). The Securities Board of Nepal also approved public issuances totaling Rs. 20.75 billion in the period.

Summary

Nepal's macroeconomic position in the first five months of 2025/26 is among the strongest it has been in several years. The combination of low inflation, record remittances, a large BOP surplus, and comfortable foreign exchange reserves creates a solid foundation. The main areas to watch remain capital expenditure execution, private sector credit growth, and the widening trade deficit.

Analysis based on NRB Current Macroeconomic Report, January 2026
⚡ Key Takeaways from Nepal's Five-Month Economic Report
  • 1
    Inflation is at a five-year low at 1.63 percent, with food prices actually falling. This is directly beneficial to ordinary households and their monthly budgets across Nepal.
  • 2
    Remittances are the economy's biggest strength right now: Rs. 870.31 billion in just five months, up 35.6 percent. This is what is keeping Nepal's BOP and foreign reserves strong.
  • 3
    Exports surged 58.2 percent, led by agricultural products like soyabean oil and cardamom going to India. This is positive diversification for Nepal's income sources.
  • 4
    Foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable Rs. 3,201 billion covering 18.2 months of imports, well above the internationally recommended three-month minimum.
  • 5
    All interest rates fell significantly: commercial bank lending rate dropped from 8.90% to 7.26%, making loans cheaper for businesses and households.
  • 6
    Capital expenditure fell 17 percent, which is a persistent concern for infrastructure development and long-term economic capacity building in Nepal.
  • 7
    Financial inclusion is expanding rapidly: deposit accounts grew from 57.5 million to 61.5 million, and mobile banking processed over 63 million transactions in a single month.
Questions and Answers
10
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about Nepal's economy and this report
Nepal's consumer price inflation fell from 6.05 percent to 1.63 percent year-on-year by mid-December 2025, primarily because food and beverage prices actually declined by 2.05 percent. Vegetables became 8.54 percent cheaper, spices fell 8.43 percent, and pulses and legumes dropped 5.79 percent. These are staple items that make up a large share of what Nepali households buy, so the price decline had a significant overall impact. Global factors also played a role: crude oil prices in international markets fell 17.8 percent, which reduces transportation and energy costs that feed into the prices of many goods. Better domestic supply conditions, improved logistics, and a good harvest season all contributed to lower food prices. However, services like education continued to become more expensive, which pulled non-food inflation up to 3.75 percent.
Remittances benefit Nepal in multiple ways at both household and national levels. At the household level, families receiving money from relatives working in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, or South Korea can cover daily expenses, pay school fees, repay loans, and even invest in small businesses or housing. At the national level, the Rs. 870.31 billion in remittances that came in during just five months is the primary reason Nepal's balance of payments is in surplus, why foreign exchange reserves are growing, and why the Nepali rupee has not depreciated more than it otherwise would. Remittances also support domestic consumption, which drives demand for goods and services across the economy. However, heavy dependence on remittances also creates vulnerability: if global economic conditions change and overseas employment slows, the impact on Nepal's economy could be significant.
The trade deficit exists because Nepal imports in much larger absolute quantities than it exports. Even though exports grew impressively by 58.2 percent to Rs. 116.51 billion, imports stood at Rs. 766.19 billion. The export base is simply much smaller. Think of it this way: if you earn Rs. 100 and it grows 50 percent to Rs. 150, but your spending is Rs. 700 and grows 15 percent to Rs. 805, you are still short by Rs. 655. Nepal's economy is structurally import-dependent because the country consumes large volumes of petroleum, machinery, vehicles, electronics, fertilizer, and food products that it does not produce domestically at sufficient scale. Reducing the trade deficit over the long term requires either significantly expanding exports (by developing manufacturing, processing industries, and services exports like tourism) or reducing dependence on imported goods through greater domestic production.
The fall in interest rates is very good news for anyone who has a loan or is planning to take one. Commercial bank lending rates dropped from 8.90 percent to 7.26 percent between December 2024 and December 2025. On a Rs. 2 million home loan, this difference could save a borrower tens of thousands of rupees per year in interest payments. For businesses, cheaper credit means lower borrowing costs for working capital and expansion. Base rates for commercial banks fell to 5.38 percent from 6.82 percent a year ago. These rate reductions happened because there is high liquidity in the banking system (driven by remittances and BOP surplus), and the demand for credit has been growing slowly. NRB's monetary policy stance has also allowed rates to ease. The concern on the other side is that deposit rates also fell, from 4.78 percent to 3.66 percent for commercial banks, which means savers are earning less on their fixed deposits.
Yes, by international standards, Nepal's foreign exchange reserves are more than adequate. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) typically recommends that a country maintain at least three months of import cover. Nepal's reserves at mid-December 2025 cover 18.2 months of combined merchandise and services imports, which is six times the minimum recommended level. This is a significant buffer that gives Nepal the ability to pay for imports, service its foreign debts, and withstand external shocks without crisis. The reserves grew 19.6 percent in Nepali rupee terms over just five months of the fiscal year, driven by the strong BOP surplus. In USD terms, they stand at USD 22.13 billion, among the highest Nepal has ever recorded. A comfortable reserve position also supports confidence in the Nepali rupee and reduces pressure for sharp currency depreciation, which would make imports more expensive for consumers and businesses.
Capital expenditure by the Nepal Government fell 17 percent to Rs. 33.87 billion in the first five months of 2025/26. This matters because capital spending is what builds the physical foundations of economic growth: roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, irrigation systems, electricity infrastructure, and government buildings. When capital spending is low, projects are delayed, and the economy's long-term productive capacity grows more slowly. Low capital execution in early months of the fiscal year is unfortunately a recurring pattern in Nepal, often blamed on slow procurement processes, bureaucratic hurdles, delayed budget approval, and political factors. Historically, the government rushes to spend capital budgets in the final months of the fiscal year, which is an inefficient way to manage public investment. Improving capital expenditure execution, especially in the first half of the fiscal year, is one of the most important and consistently recommended reforms for Nepal's public financial management system.
The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio measures the percentage of total loans that borrowers are not repaying on time. As of mid-October 2025, Nepal's NPL ratio stood at 5.26 percent. In simple terms, this means that for every Rs. 100 lent by banks and financial institutions, about Rs. 5.26 is not being repaid as agreed. International best practice suggests that an NPL ratio above 5 percent deserves close monitoring, as it indicates stress in the banking system. Nepal's ratio above this threshold, while not yet at a crisis level, does warrant attention from the banking regulator. It suggests that some borrowers, particularly in sectors like real estate, are facing difficulties repaying loans. NRB's capital adequacy data shows that the core capital-to-RWA ratio stands at 9.72 percent and total capital-to-RWA at 12.82 percent, both above the minimum requirement, which means banks have sufficient capital buffers to absorb these losses for now.
Advertisement  

References and Data Sources

  1. Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). (January 2026). Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal Based on Five Months Data (Ending Mid-December) of 2025/26. Economic Research Department, Baluwatar, Kathmandu. Primary source for all data in this blog. www.nrb.org.np
  2. Ministry of Finance, Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), Government of Nepal. (2025/26). Government expenditure and revenue data cited in NRB report Table 3. Source of fiscal data in Section 6.
  3. Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON). (2025/26). Public issuance approval data for the NEPSE capital market section. Cited via NRB report paragraphs 62-68.
  4. Nepal Rastra Bank. (2025). BFI Branch and Account Data. Electronic Map of Banking Infrastructure (emap.nrb.org.np). Source for Table 6 and Table 7 branch and deposit account statistics.
  5. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). IMF External Sector Assessment Methodology and Reserve Adequacy Guidelines. Used for contextual comparison of Nepal's foreign exchange reserve adequacy ratios. www.imf.org
  6. World Bank. (2024). Nepal Development Update: Unlocking Nepal's Private Sector Potential. Used for background context on Nepal's structural trade and remittance patterns. www.worldbank.org
  7. Nepal Rastra Bank. (2025). NRB Monetary Policy 2025/26. Background policy framework for interest rate and liquidity management analysis in Section 8. www.nrb.org.np
⚠ This blog is for educational and informational purposes only. All data is sourced directly from the Nepal Rastra Bank's official Five-Month Macroeconomic Report for 2025/26, published January 9, 2026, unless otherwise cited. Interpretations and plain-language explanations are those of the author and do not represent any official position of NRB or the Government of Nepal. Readers are encouraged to consult the original NRB report for complete and authoritative data.
Nilambar Khanal
Nilambar Khanal
Research Educator  ·  nilambarkhanal.com.np

Nilambar Khanal is a research educator and knowledge-sharing advocate who writes at the intersection of economics, financial literacy, and public policy in Nepal and South Asia. Based in Nepal, he translates complex official reports, economic data, and institutional research into clear, evidence-based reading for students, professionals, and general readers. This blog is part of his series making NRB publications and government economic data accessible to everyday Nepali readers who deserve to understand the country's economic direction in plain language. His other guides on this platform cover financial literacy, startup ecosystems, accounting fundamentals, and workplace economics.

Found This Useful?

Share with teachers, students, and anyone in Nepal who wants to understand the country's economy without the jargon.

#NepalEconomy #NRBReport #NepalInflation #Remittance #NEPSE #ForeignReserves #NepalBanking #MacroeconomicsNepal #FiscalYear202526 #NilambarKhanal

Post a Comment